Question 4.6 follows: The monthly sales for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were as SALES 20 21 15 14 13 MONTH January February March April May June July August September October November December 16 18 20 20 21 23 a) Plot the monthly sales data. b) Forecast January sales using each of the following: i) Naive method. ii) A 3-month moving average. iii) A 6-month weighted average using .1..1..1..2..2. and .3, with the heaviest weights applied to the most recent months. iv) Exponential smoothing using an a = 3 and a September forecast or 18. V A trend projection. c) With the data given, which method would allow you to ford- cast next Marchs sales?

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Transcribed Image Text: 4.6 follows: The monthly sales for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were as SALES 20 21 15 14 13 MONTH January February March April May June July August September October November December 16 18 20 20 21 23 a) Plot the monthly sales data. b) Forecast January sales using each of the following: i) Naive method. ii) A 3-month moving average. iii) A 6-month weighted average using .1..1..1..2..2. and .3, with the heaviest weights applied to the most recent months. iv) Exponential smoothing using an a = 3 and a September forecast or 18. V A trend projection. c) With the data given, which method would allow you to ford- cast next Marchs sales?
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Transcribed Image Text: 4.6 follows: The monthly sales for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were as SALES 20 21 15 14 13 MONTH January February March April May June July August September October November December 16 18 20 20 21 23 a) Plot the monthly sales data. b) Forecast January sales using each of the following: i) Naive method. ii) A 3-month moving average. iii) A 6-month weighted average using .1..1..1..2..2. and .3, with the heaviest weights applied to the most recent months. iv) Exponential smoothing using an a = 3 and a September forecast or 18. V A trend projection. c) With the data given, which method would allow you to ford- cast next Marchs sales?
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A) Sales B) 1. Naive method. Using the Naive method of forecasting we see that the value for the following month is simply that of the most recent month, which in this case sales were 23, the value of December. 2. A 3-month moving average. Month Sales 3-month moving average January 20   February 21   March 15   April 14 18.67 May 13 16.67 June 16 14.00 July 17 14.33 August 18 15.33 September 20 17.00 October 20 18.33 November 21 19.33 December 23 20.33 January forecast   21.33 The 3-month moving average for the next month would equal 21.333 ForecastingTimeDemand = Forecast = WMA 3. 6-month weighted average using .1, .1, .1, .2, .2, and .3, with the heaviest weights applied to the most recent months. Month Sales Weights Forecast January 20 0.1   February 21 0.1   March 15 0.1   April 14 0.2   May 13 0.2   June 16 0.3   July 17   15.8 August 18   15.9 September 20   16.2 October 20   17.3 November 21   18.2 December 23   19.4 January fore ... See the full answer