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Abstract Imagine you're the application hazard engineer for a new refinery being built in the Middle East. The the front-quit engineering and design (FEED) phase has been finished, and the mission will be coming into a key phase: procurement. Key selections need to be made regarding the procurement method, the timing of the tendering process, and the variety of packages on which contractors will bid. What advice would you provide this system director? This case study walks participants through the story, pausing at crucial decision factors to invite individuals how they would respond to the state of affairs. Decision-orientated case research are dependent and written from the standpoint of a key player, the protagonist. They are framed around records available to the protagonist at the time of the occasion. The case usually builds to a point where the selection-maker is confronted with open-ended picks. The target market is left to analyze the records and scenarios after which make vital decisions based on contextual evaluation. This paper follows the NASA/GSFC case take a look at improvement methodology for case research. (National Aeronautic and Space Administration [NASA], 2008) Introduction A case look at can be understood satisfactory as a story, primarily based on real activities, that creates an opportunity for verbal exchange, problem analysis, and virtual choice-making. An effective case study transfers unique expertise via setting the pupil or workshop player in a position to assume via alternatives faced with the aid of choice-makers in real-lifestyles situations. By confronting actual situations, members broaden and refine analytical abilities for solving comparable troubles in their very own projects (NASA, 2008). The Practice Standard for Project Risk Management published by way of the Project Management Institute (PMI, 2008b) describes standards for chance management that are recognized as correct exercise on most initiatives most of the time. Do complex initiatives require any extraordinary or extra tactics or methods than the standard describes? In A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge – Fourth Edition (PMBOK® Guide), “task chance is an unsure event or condition that, if it happens, has a advantageous or terrible effect on at the least one challenge goal.” (PMI, 2008a, p. 275) The definition for Project Risk Management, as described inside the PMBOK® Guide, is “Project Risk Management consists of the tactics involved with accomplishing danger control planning, identity, evaluation, responses, and monitoring and manage on a mission.” (p. 273) PMBOK® Guide also states: “The objectives of Project Risk Management are to growth the probability and impact of fine occasions, and reduce the chance and impact of negative occasions inside the venture.” (p. 273) Practice Standard for Project Risk Management identifies three important achievement factors for danger management: (PMI, 2008b, p. 21-22) Identify and Address Barriers to Successful Project Risk Management Involve Stakeholders, and Comply with the Organization's Objectives, Policies, and Practices. Oil and fuel joint ventures (JV) every so often do not have completely developed guidelines and processes of their early stages. If hazard control strategies are not part of the techniques the JV has compiled, effective and realistic danger management procedures need to be installed place. The popular additionally identifies ten crucial achievement factors for identifying risks: (PMI, 2008b, p. 25-27) Early Identification Iterative Identification Emergent Identification Comprehensive Risk Identification Explicit Identification of Opportunities Inclusion of multiple views Fully defined danger statements Risks have to be associated with as a minimum one venture goal Assignment of an owner to a single danger, and Maintaining an goal view and exposing bias. Using multiple hazard identity techniques is recommended (PMI, 2008b). A undertaking may also choose to apply a chance universe tick list (ancient evaluation), collectively with assumptions evaluation (contemporary evaluation) and brainstorming (creativity). The Context – Risk in Oil & Gas / Complex Programs The design and production of a refinery is inherently complicated. The FEED (front quit engineering and layout) is the maximum vital level in which it is clean to influence the design at a pretty low value (Whiteside, 2010). However, threat can occur at any mission degree. One refinery in India, as an example, skilled financing problems, design troubles, turned into in part destroyed during construction, and become underinsured. Eventually it became completed in 13 years. The unique schedule turned into 4 years (Hydrocarbons, 2009). This case have a look at views risk from the proprietor's in preference to the contractor's attitude. Oil Refinery Program Background Developed by using Wilbur L. Nelson in 1960, the Nelson complexity index (NCI) describes a measure of the secondary conversion capacity of a petrol refinery relative to the primary distillation capability (Nelson Complexity Index, 2012, ¶1). The index suggests the funding depth of the refinery and its ability price addition; the better the wide variety, the more the value of the refinery and the higher the price of its products. The refinery in this example take a look at has a Nelson complexity Index of 10.6. As a evaluation, the average NCI of america refining industry is 10.Nine (Satorp, 2011). Europe refineries have a mean rating of 6.Five. (Nelson Complexity Index, 2012, ¶4). So at the same time as the Refinery can be considered complex, it's far comparable with the average US refinery. The refinery will method low fee Arabian heavy crude oil to produce excessive price refined merchandise, Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG), petroleum coke, liquid sulfur and petrochemical merchandise (paraxylene, benzene and propylene) that meet the worldwide market's maximum stringent product specification s. It will gain from close proximity to the Arabian heavy crude supply device within the Arabian Gulf and from the facilities of the Jubail Industrial City, which includes water, power, different utilities, infrastructure and a residential section. It may also enjoy the centers on the King Fahad Industrial Port. “The Refinery may be located on a 480 hectare website online inside the industrial location of Al-Jubail called Jubail 2 in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). This is a newly developed location of Jubail in an effort to be same in length to the presently evolved industrial town (now termed Jubail 1). Jubail 2 lies inland from Jubail 1 on the other side of the primary E-W toll road and pipeline. The Project may be the essential new mission on the Jubail 2 website, and is the first enlargement of the industrial town since it was originally laid out inside the early Nineteen Eighties.. In addition to the website in Jubail 2, SATORP has been allotted 17 hectare of land in the King Fahd Industrial Port for storage as well as access to five berths on the port for the shipment of its products, including petroleum coke. (Satorp, 2011, p.392) Project Objective “The aggressive advantages of the Project from a technical attitude are: Large-scale capability (400,000 barrel in keeping with day capacity) Access to low cost utilities and infrastructure in the Jubail Industrial City Strategic vicinity with attain to the European and other markets Full conversion of gasoline oil into high cost distillates with rejection of carbon as coke) Use of decrease-fee heavy crude feedstock (Arabian Heavy crude) High value petrochemical manufacturing (equal to 5 wt% of crude oil feedstock) Competitive contemporary manner generation, with proven plant layout, supplied by way of the main licensors Secure lengthy-time period deliver of a unmarried crude oil from Saudi Aramco” (p.395). “Process generation has been licensed from legit licensors and all era is commercially established in operation of a comparable scale and responsibility in different operating plants. The key licensors are: Axens—NHT/CCR (Naphtha Hydrotreater/ Continuous Catalytic Regeneration), Aromatics, FCC (fluid catalytic cracking) Chevron-Lummus Global—Hydrocrackers DuPont —Sulphuric Acid Alkylation Foster Wheeler—Delayed Coker UOP—Middle Distillate Hydrotreaters” (p. 392) Joint Venture Partners The refinery is owned 62.Five% via Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Saudi Aramco) and 37.5% via TOTAL Refining Saudi Arabia SAS Limited (TOTAL) registered in France, a wholly owned subsidiary of TOTAL S.A. Key Stakeholders The Saudi Royal family is a key stakeholder as the refinery is to be built on land leased beneath a 30 year running hire agreement with the Royal Commission. The rent is renewable via the Company for similar intervals beneath together agreed phrases and conditions for the gain of the Company. Other stakeholders include the executives of the two joint venture companions and team participants along with internal contractor personnel. Commercial tenants in the Jubail Industrial City could be stakeholders as nicely. Cost and Financing The refinery is estimated to fee approximately $12 billion. Refinery Management plans to use commitments from Export Credit Agencies and positive worldwide and commercial banks to provide the company with senior secured term mortgage centers at favorable pricing and loan guarantees. These include the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia and the Export Credit Agencies: SACE - S.P.A. Servizi Assicurativi del Commercio Estero - Italy JBIC - Japan Bank for International Cooperation NEXI - Nippon Export and Investment Insurance - Japan KEXIM - Export-Import Bank of Korea KEIC - Korea Export Insurance Corporation The refinery could be funded inside the early degrees via shareholder loans. Expenses so far are approximately US$a hundred million, which consist of FEED costs. Market and financial context Oil call for has been highly gentle for the reason that global economic system went into recession in 2009. The Project refinery is an export orientated facility, processing Arab Heavy crude oil to produce gas and diesel. “There is ample feedstock to be had for the Project from Saudi Aramco, one of the two joint challenge companions. The future sustainable potential for Arab Heavy manufacturing is expected to be at the least 2.4 million barrels according to day (b/d), while domestic demand (along with the Project) isn't predicted to exceed 1.3 million b/d” (Satorp, 2011, p. 422). Wood MacKenzie performed an evaluation of the Project using a Net Cash Margin (NCM) approach and found it positioned very competitively when compared with other refineries. NCM captures maximum of the crucial elements of a refinery's overall performance that define its aggressive position inside the short / medium term; NCM is defined as: “NCM ($/bbl) = Product Worth ($/bbl) - Cost of Crude ($/bbl) - Cash Operating Expenses ($/bbl) NCM increased by annual crude refinery throughput is successfully equivalent to EBITDA (Earnings earlier than Income Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization). EBITDA is a metric used by mortgage covenants and traders. Performance to Date Retendering can also take 10 to 365 days. But although simplest five% will be saved, it might result in reduced Capital expenditures (CAPEX). On a 10 to 11B challenge, five% financial savings would be US$500 million. Challenges The venture schedule may be a place of competition. Contractors often complain of customers who call for underneath budgeted timeframes via as much as 25%. The variety of certified EPC contractors has been decreased in the ultimate decade through mergers. Even though the recession has reduced international demand for EPC services, the Saudi Arabian market has many ongoing initiatives that closing multiple years. These projects can peak on the identical time in production, ensuing in bottleneck. As one European contractor said, “Visas, trendy bureaucracy, logistics, resources, a number of us are going to be preventing for the equal constrained assets” (Goliath, 2005). Contractors and subcontractors can't always discover experienced engineers, mainly while relocation to Saudi Arabia for months or years is needed. Decisions Procurement Strategy and Objectives The owner's priorities are to lessen capital expenditures to the finest quantity possible, at the same time as nonetheless building a pretty complicated complete-conversion refinery. They also wish to place the onus at the contractor / EPC to the best volume possible, and like using lump sum, turn key contracts whenever feasible. The Saudi government wants to construct competencies of local companies. The joint venture additionally wants to inspire neighborhood corporations to compete for the EPC contracts in step with the JV's regulations and objectives. Organizational Structure of Program The Project Director has full responsibility for Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Commissioning (EPCC) execution of the Project reporting to the CEO of the JV and supported with the aid of a transient Project Management Team (PMT) for the period of EPCC execution. The PMT is estimated to height at 300 plus personnel throughout the engineering section and to be approximately 400 plus employees at the peak of production segment. Staffing of the PMT may be via secondees from the JV partners supplemented by means of transient personnel from staffing groups. Risk Management Strategy and Tactics The following dangers were observed: Lack of a top contractor may also lead to negative coordination and in the long run an extended agenda. The range of programs, 15, can also cause greater efforts in coordination and communique. The fashionable EPC settlement has no requirement for the contractor to carry out hazard control. The joint task has guidelines and techniques, however does no longer have hazard control procedures yet in location. Retendering ought to produce decrease contract gives, which might be a nice danger. It might additionally postpone the assignment via numerous months but.     Work citation Goliath - The Private Saudi Petrochemical Sector. (2005). Retrieved from http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/gi_0199-4806792/SAUDI-ARABIA-The-Private-Saudi.html ...